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Download e-book for kindle: America's new swing region: changing politics and by Ruy Teixeira

By Ruy Teixeira

ISBN-10: 0815722869

ISBN-13: 9780815722861

The Mountain West —Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah —has turn into the recent swing area in American politics. All indicators aspect to those states, specially Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, being an important within the 2012 election. regrettably, the increase of this zone has been underreported within the media, and lots of political observers have in basic terms the main superficial realizing of the profound fiscal, political, and social alterations that proceed to reshape the Mountain West. America's New Swing zone is the remedy.Led by way of bestselling writer and political analyst Ruy Teixeira, a skilled team of students assembled by means of the Brookings Mountain West software (housed on the college of Nevada–Las Vegas) provides the evidence and the narrative precious for realizing what's taking place during this sector and why it's so important.Contents 1. creation and Overview2. America's New Swing quarter: The Political Demography and Geography of the Mountain West3. Metropolitan vote casting styles within the Mountain West: the hot and previous Political Heartlands4. Hispanics, Race, and the altering Political panorama of the USA Mountain West5. The Political Attitudes of the Millennial iteration within the Mountain West6. The Mountain West this day: A nearby Survey7. Reapportionment and Redistricting within the Mountain WestContributors comprise Karlyn Bowman (American company Institute), David Damore(University of Nevada–Las Vegas (UNLV), William Frey (Brookings Institution), Scott Keeter (Pew study Center), Robert E. Lang (Brookings, UNLV, and the Lincy Institute), Tom Sanchez (Virginia Tech University), and Ruy Teixeira (Century origin and the guts for American Progress).

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Extra info for America's new swing region: changing politics and demographics in the Mountain West

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Overall, these shifts indicate that there is substantial demographic change in the fast-gaining parts of Denver’s outer suburbs, the Colorado Springs metropolitan area, and the surging North and West regions. indd 27 1/24/12 5:38 PM 28 W illiam H. F rey and R uy T eixeira Table C-2A. 2010 Share of Eligible Voters by Demographic Segment and Attribute for Colorado Regions Percent Denver SouthOuter east North subColorado and and Total urbs Boulder Springs East Central West state City Inner suburbs 35 10 31 25 13 23 11 11 42 13 13 39 22 12 23 25 17 15 22 13 27 15 15 23 22 13 27 24 39 37 35 43 43 38 47 39 Age 18–29 30–44 45–64 65+ 27 29 30 14 21 27 37 15 15 30 43 12 30 24 33 14 25 26 35 14 18 22 39 20 20 27 36 17 23 24 36 17 22 26 36 15 Race/ethnicity White Black Hispanic All other 65 10 20 5 75 4 15 5 89 1 6 4 87 1 8 5 78 5 11 6 75 3 21 2 78 1 19 3 85 1 11 3 78 4 14 4 Gender/marital status Male Female, married Female, not married 50 18 32 49 27 24 49 33 17 49 24 27 50 28 22 50 26 24 53 26 20 50 27 23 50 26 24 Demographic segment/ attribute Segment All minorities Whites, age 65+ Whites, working-age college graduate Whites, working-age non–college graduate Education High school graduate or less Some college College graduate 31 35 21 19 29 44 32 33 32 27 42 34 31 28 51 33 48 39 31 35 21 34 34 37 30 34 35 Male occupation Managerial/professional All other 43 57 36 64 55 45 57 43 40 60 31 69 33 67 35 65 40 60 Place of birth Same state California Other Western state Rest of United States Abroad 37 6 7 43 7 38 7 8 41 7 26 8 8 54 5 24 9 6 56 4 23 9 8 55 4 50 5 8 35 2 38 5 7 47 3 38 7 11 42 3 35 7 8 45 5 Source: Authors’ analysis of data from the 2010 American Community Survey.

Nearly two-thirds of Colorado’s electorate was born out of state, especially in non-Western parts of the United States. indd 26 1/24/12 5:38 PM America’s New Swing Region 27 has occurred among migrants born in California, the rest of the West, and outside the country. These eligible voter profiles and growth tendencies have played out quite differently across regions (see tables C-2A and C-2B). White, working-age college graduates account for a substantial share of eligible voters in Denver’s outer suburbs and in Boulder.

The GOP candidate will seek to shift this group back toward its earlier GOP sympathies or at least to whittle down significantly Obama’s 2008 advantage among the group. Then there is the group most sympathetic to the GOP: the white working class. McCain carried these voters by 15 points in 2008, and given the current economic situation, there is certainly room for a sharper swing toward the Republicans in 2012. If the GOP advantage among these voters approaches the 30 points that the party attained nationwide in the 2010 election, it would have an excellent chance of taking the state.

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America's new swing region: changing politics and demographics in the Mountain West by Ruy Teixeira


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